El Nino Plus The Pineapple Express and the Gulf of Mexico

[sliderocker]

El Nino, the Pineapple Express (moisture from the Pacific originating from Hawaii) plus moisture from the Gulf of Mexico have created probably the biggest winter storm New Mexico, Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas have seen in a while. Oklahoma and Texas today have been under severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings, and around 6:30-7:00 pm central time, a large tornado swept through the east side of Dallas. There are four fatalities, maybe more yet to be discovered in the hours to come. Scariest of all, that tornado is still on the ground at this time (just a little after 9 pm CT), causing damage and maybe causing more fatalities, crossing from Texas into southeast Oklahoma. Meanwhile, on the cold side of the storm system, western Oklahoma (including the panhandle), the Texas panhandle and most if not all of New Mexico and parts of Colorado and Kansas are under a blizzard warning with average expected snow totals of 8-12", with some areas possibly having up to two feet of snow or more, if a thunderstorm develops in the area where it's snowing. A thunderstorm with snow is possible and the totals can be much heavier than just an average snow storm. It's been raining most of the day where I live, and we've had a little over two inches of rain so far. More rain is expected tonight and is also expected to change to freezing rain as well, and then to sleet tomorrow and then to snow tomorrow night, with 2-5" of snow. I'd rather have the snow than the ice because although it's hard to drive on the snow, it's harder to drive on ice and almost impossible.

But, my thoughts are for the persons killed by the tornado in Dallas tonight and for those killed in the southeastern US the past few days. And their families. Whatever our differences, we may have family and friends in the areas affected by this incredible storm or know someone who has family and friends. I have both and I just hope they are safe tonight. Ironically, our TV weather people had been talking about this storm for the past week and a half, advising people to be prepared. Makes me wonder did the weather people on TV in the other states not see the same thing? Most of them are meterologists, although there's no doubt some are just pretty faces designed to attract the viewers. Because of the severe weather possibilities, all of the weather personnel at television stations in Oklahoma are meterologists.

And a question I have is this all El Nino's doing or global warming? Much of our snowy weather comes as a result of Pacific moisture, despite the fact we are closer to the Gulf of Mexico. But, in the winter time, the moisture from the Gulf is shut off, which means we don't get a lot of snow/ice/sleet during the winter. This past week, we had been rather warm and moist, and the Gulf was open for business. The Gulf moisture is contributing to our rain and severe storms (including the tornadoes) to our region today and tonight. The moisture from the Pacific, the Pineapple Express will contribute to our ice, sleet and snow tonight through Monday afternoon before it moves on to other parts of the US. God help them if they've not been warned about what's coming.

[erik]

I would have to say that it is probably a combination of El Nino and the warm, moist air coming out of the Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico in vast quantities and colliding with the cold air coming out of Canada that is causing the nearly unprecedented outbreak of twisters and other ultra-violent weather in the South at this time. I was watching the Sun Bowl game between Miami (Florida) and Washington State from El Paso on TV, and it was unbelievably cold and rainy (the rain actually turned to snow as the game went on). And this was, by the way, right near the Mexican border.

The most bizarre thing is that, yesterday on Christmas Day, the daytime high in New York City was fifteen degrees warmer than that of Los Angeles (73 degrees in NYC; just 58 here in L.A.)!

All of this will probably make this winter (and spring) one of the most unpredictable ones in terms of weather around the nation in history.

[sliderocker]

Unpredictable is right! The death total in and around the Dallas area last heard was around 28. That's incredible. The first four people reported killed had been in an auto accident when the twister hit. There was an apartment complex and Target destroyed by the twister, which may be where the other victims were at when the storm hit. I used to do inventory and I'm pretty sure I did that Target store. I know they would've gathered everyone in the store and headed them to the back in the stock room for protection. The questions here are did they have enough time or did they wait until the last minute? In a tornado, so many people get injured or killed because they don't seek shelter until the last minute or they think it won't happen to them. That's not a healthy attitude to have. No one is invincible in a tornado that is on the ground and moving.

And that's another part of the problem as when the weather service or weather personnel on tv stations issue a tornado warning, it's based on radar observations. In Oklahoma City, the tv weather personnel stay on the air the entire time of the storm and have field observers out in the areas where a tornado is supposed to be, watching for the tornadic part of the storm. Sometimes a funnel develops, whereas other times nothing happens. But, when the storm has produced a tornado, one may only have a few minutes to get to a shelter and where the tornado is, there may not be enough time for that.

It may be bizarre to believe, but it's not at all unusual for El Paso to get snow so close to the Mexican boarder. They are kind of in a mountainous area and they can go from one weather extreme to another rather quickly. It's a beautiful town. But, it makes me jealous they frequently have more snow than we do. New York City having a Christmas day high temperature of 73* was a rarity but not totally unheard of. They have those Christmas temperatures much like we have a white Christmas. Rare, but not unheard of.

I am wondering what kind of winter season we will have this time around, and I figure we're going to be in for a rough spring storm season, with lots of tornadoes. In that sense, I would hope that we go down into the Arctic deep freeze and stay there all winter, like we did one winter and which helped to keep the tornadoes to a minimum by keeping the atmosphere cool and stable. If we start warming up into the 90s in March or April (again, not unheard of, but more of a rarity), we can probably count on tornadoes anytime a strong cold front comes through.

[erik]

Quote by sliderocker:

I am wondering what kind of winter season we will have this time around, and I figure we're going to be in for a rough spring storm season, with lots of tornadoes. In that sense, I would hope that we go down into the Arctic deep freeze and stay there all winter, like we did one winter and which helped to keep the tornadoes to a minimum by keeping the atmosphere cool and stable. If we start warming up into the 90s in March or April (again, not unheard of, but more of a rarity), we can probably count on tornadoes anytime a strong cold front comes through.

We're preparing here in Southern California for what El Nino is supposed to bring us between mid-January and early April in terms of rainfall, which is supposed to be huge (20-30 inches, which, even if that came true, wouldn't really break the four-year drought). Thus far, though, the Sierra Nevada has gotten a great deal of snow, which is a good sign (IMHO).