The Godzilla of El Ninos

[sliderocker]

The El Nino that's been talked about is beginning to look extremely fierce. It's being described as the biggest one yet and could last until spring of next year. For drought-stricken California in the coming months, it could mean an end to that drought, which would be great news for California on the one hand. But, on the other hand (the one that always gets in trouble), it could also mean serious flooding and mudslides. Not something to look forward to. In Oklahoma, they are talking about a potentially wet winter and with any cold, some potentially heavy snowfall. The largest snowfall on record in Oklahoma was in 1971 when three feet of snow fell in the northwestern part of the state. I've seen 15" of snow on the ground where I live. Last night, the weatherman was showing a map of the US, which showed the temperature averages for August have been cooler for much of the US, stretching from California to the northeast, with only the upper northwest part of the US and the lower southeast part of the US above normal. Could this be a case of be careful what you wish for?

More on the story here:

www.aol.com/article/2015/08/13/godzilla-el-nino-may-be-coming-to-california-latest-forecast/21222389/?icid=maing-grid7|main5|dl1|sec1_lnk2%26pLid%3D1488559049

[erik]

I heard this on the news this morning. We can only hope for a rainier than normal winter here in California--but if we get far too much too fast, as I saw happen in 1977/78. 19879/80, 1982/83, and 2007/08, then you'll see people's homes slide into the Pacific Ocean. During those aforementioned winters, L.A.'s rainfall, which normally averages around fifteen inches, was two to three times that. And it's also kind of important that the snowpack in the Sierra Nevada be fairly substantial too, as that is actually where we get most of our water from.

And as I said in another thread, we had the wettest July on record here because of the Southwestern monsoon, combined with the flow of moisture from a pair of tropical storms. Granted, it was only a third of an inch that we got--but as the normal July rainfall is usually just a mere .05 inches, that's pretty heavy for us.

[sliderocker]

We're still about 20" above normal on rainfall, although August has been a pretty dry month so far. But, in previous El Nino years for Oklahoma, the rain and snow totals tend to be heavier rather than lighter, and we've still got four and a half months left of 2015 to get through. I can't recall what the northeastern part of the US went through in other El Nino years, but seems like I remember there were times when they didn't see as much snow as what they normally had. (Anyone in the northeast, feel free to chime in what you remember about the El Nino years.)

But, in a way, it's like a nun once said, with every blessing comes a penalty. We get the rain or snow we want but then we get the flooding, mudslides, rock slides (part of I-35 in central-southern Oklahoma was closed in both lanes after the heavy rains dislodged a few large rocks in a more hilly area of the state), colder weather, homes destroyed. On the plus side, the precipitation has the added benefit of cooling the temperatures in the areas where the rain or snow falls. The colder weather can almost wipe out harmful insects like ticks and mosquitoes and send snakes (including poisonous ones) further underground. People here like the warmer winter weather we had earlier this year but so did the rattlesnakes. They were seen in February rather than in late March or early April when the temperatures typically start to warm up. And they were seen in cities, which they usually avoid. I'm not as much of a fan of the cold and snow as I used to be, but I'd rather deal with the cold and snow for a short time than deal with the snakes, ticks and mosquitoes. I want to see California's drought ended but I hope it will be without the flooding, mudslides and rock slides and homes being destroyed. It will be interesting to see how this El Nino plays out as far as the severity is concerned.

[erik]

If there is going to be a Godzilla-type El Nino condition this season, it just started today with a subtropical storm system, primarily the remains of a former Category 3 Pacific hurricane named (I kid you not) Linda, dropping 2.50 inches of rain on Downtown Los Angeles, and between three and four inches in the foothill and mountain areas. It is also as warm and humid as is possible for mid-September.

Stay tuned!

[sliderocker]

That was a fairly healthy bit of rain to fall and I know you guys could use a lot more. And it would be better to fall in smaller amounts over time than in larger amounts all at once. We're expecting rain this weekend and cooler high temperatures (70s) briefly before it warms back up into the 80s next week, but the weather systems responsible for our cooler weather are Canadian fronts. The warmer temperatures could come to an end quickly, but for our precipitation, when the storm systems start coming out of Canada, we need the moisture from the Pacific for rain (or snow...or ice) as the Gulf of Mexico usually gets shut off. Our winter-yet-to-come is expected to be colder and snowier because of El Nino and with the Pacific waters warmed and warmed deep, that could mean much more snow where I live and more rain for the people of California if the west and southwest winds tap into that large field of Pacific moisture. It is a pretty long, wide and deep field. The only problem is the weather service can't predict exactly what it's going to do other than they think the southern half of the US will be the beneficiary of whatever happens.